# post-hoc MCMC with glmmTMB

#### Ben Bolker

#### 2021-09-20

One commonly requested feature is to be able to run a post hoc Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis based on the results of a frequentist fit. This is often a reasonable shortcut for computing confidence intervals and p-values that allow for finite-sized samples rather than relying on asymptotic sampling distributions. This vignette shows an example of such an analysis. Some caveats:

- when using such a "pseudo-Bayesian" approach, be aware that using a scaled likelihood (implicit, improper priors) can often cause problems, especially when the model is poorly constrained by the data
- in particular, models with poorly constrained random effects (singular or nearly singular) are likely to give bad results
- as shown below, even models that are well-behaved for frequentist fitting may need stronger priors to give well-behaved MCMC results
- as with all MCMC analysis, it is the user's responsibility to check for proper mixing and convergence of the chains before drawing conclusions
- the first MCMC sampler illustrated below is simple (Metropolis with a multivariate normal candidate distribution). Users who want to do MCMC sampling on a regular basis should consider the tmbstan package, which does much more efficient hybrid/Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling.

Load packages:

    library(glmmTMB)
    library(coda)     ## MCMC utilities
    library(reshape2) ## for melt()
    ## graphics
    library(lattice)
    library(ggplot2); theme_set(theme_bw())

Fit basic model:

    data("sleepstudy",package="lme4")
    fm1 <- glmmTMB(Reaction ~ Days + (Days|Subject),
                   sleepstudy)

Set up for MCMC: define scaled log-posterior function (in this case the log-likelihood function); extract coefficients and variance-covariance matrices as starting points.

    ## FIXME: is there a better way for user to extract full coefs?
    rawcoef <- with(fm1$obj$env,last.par[-random])
    names(rawcoef) <- make.names(names(rawcoef),unique=TRUE)
    ## log-likelihood function
    ## (MCMCmetrop1R wants *positive* log-lik)
    logpost_fun <- function(x) -fm1$obj$fn(x)
    ## check definitions
    stopifnot(all.equal(c(logpost_fun(rawcoef)),
                        c(logLik(fm1)),
              tolerance=1e-7))
    V <- vcov(fm1,full=TRUE)

This is a basic block Metropolis sampler, based on Florian Hartig's code here.

    ##' @param start starting value
    ##' @param V variance-covariance matrix of MVN candidate distribution
    ##' @param iterations total iterations
    ##' @param nsamp number of samples to store
    ##' @param burnin number of initial samples to discard
    ##' @param thin thinning interval
    ##' @param tune tuning parameters; expand/contract V
    ##' @param seed random-number seed
    run_MCMC <- function(start,
                         V,
                         logpost_fun,
                         iterations = 10000,
                         nsamp = 1000,
                         burnin = iterations/2,
                         thin = floor((iterations-burnin)/nsamp),
                         tune = NULL,
                         seed=NULL
                         ) {
        ## initialize
        if (!is.null(seed)) set.seed(seed)
        if (!is.null(tune)) {
            tunesq <- if (length(tune)==1) tune^2 else outer(tune,tune)
            V <-  V*tunesq
        }
        chain <- matrix(NA, nsamp+1, length(start))
        chain[1,] <- cur_par <- start
        postval <- logpost_fun(cur_par)
        j <- 1
        for (i in 1:iterations) {
            proposal = MASS::mvrnorm(1,mu=cur_par, Sigma=V)
            newpostval <- logpost_fun(proposal)
            accept_prob <- exp(newpostval - postval)
            if (runif(1) < accept_prob) {
                cur_par <- proposal
                postval <- newpostval
            }
            if ((i>burnin) && (i %% thin == 1)) {
                chain[j+1,] <- cur_par
                j <- j + 1
            }
        }
        chain <- na.omit(chain)
        colnames(chain) <- names(start)
        chain <- coda::mcmc(chain)
        return(chain)
    }

Run the chain:

    t1 <- system.time(m1 <- run_MCMC(start=rawcoef,
                                     V=V, logpost_fun=logpost_fun,
                                     seed=1001))

(running this chain takes 13.2 seconds)

Add more informative names and transform correlation parameter (see vignette on covariance structures and parameters):

    colnames(m1) <- c(names(fixef(fm1)[[1]]),
                      "log(sigma)",
                      c("log(sd_Intercept)","log(sd_Days)","cor"))
    m1[,"cor"] <- sapply(m1[,"cor"],get_cor)

    xyplot(m1,layout=c(2,3),asp="fill")

The trace plots are poor, especially for the correlation; the effective sample size backs this up, as would any other diagnostics we did.

    print(effectiveSize(m1),digits=3)

In a real analysis we would stop and fix the mixing/convergence problems before proceeding; for this simple sampler, some of our choices would be (1) simply run the chain for longer; (2) tune the candidate distribution (e.g. by using `tune` to scale some parameters, or perhaps by switching to a multivariate Student t distribution [see the `mvtnorm` package]); (3) add regularizing priors.

Ignoring the problems and proceeding, we can compute column-wise quantiles or highest posterior density intervals (`coda::HPDinterval`) to get confidence intervals. Plotting posterior distributions, omitting the intercept because it's on a very different scale.

## tmbstan

The `tmbstan` package allows direct, simple access to a hybrid/Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm for sampling from a TMB object; the `$obj` component of a `glmmTMB` fit is such an object. (To run this example you'll need to install the `tmbstan` package and its dependencies.)

    ## install.packages("tmbstan")
    library(tmbstan)
    t2 <- system.time(m2 <- tmbstan(fm1$obj))

(running this command, which creates 4 chains, takes 125.7 seconds)

However, there are many indications (warning messages; trace plots) that the correlation parameter needs to a more informative prior. (In the plot below, the correlation parameter is shown on its unconstrained scale; the actual correlation would be \(\theta_3/\sqrt{1+\theta_3^2}\).)

## To do

- solve mixing for cor parameter
- more complex example - e.g. `Owls`